Let’s Make a Deal

This is the sort of thing that amuses my mathematical mind. The starting point is the classic Monty Hall problem. If you aren’t familiar with it, it goes like this.

You have three doors. Behind one is a car, behind the other two are goats. You have to choose which door you want. Before revealing what is behind your door, Monty Hall (if you are too young to recall “Let’s Make a Deal” on TV, just imagine a game show host) opens one of the doors you didn’t choose and there’s a goat. At this point Monty offers you the option to change your mind and take the other door.

Statistically speaking, what is the best choice? Stick with your original door or switch? As a hint I will tell you that one answer is much better than the other, which may be counterintuitive.

Today’s New York Times Science section has a follow up article that takes this even farther.

If you’d like the Monty Hall problem explained further and actually test it out online, go here.