Well it was a historic night indeed. I didn’t even stay up late because it was so clearly over early. I was watching on InTrade some of the contracts for individual states (mainly Florida, North Carolina and Indiana). In every case, InTrade gave you an advance notice of who would win.
The most interesting thing to me was on the Indiana contract. It was obviously very close and that was reflected on InTrade. Look at the graph for Indiana from about 7:45 to 10:00 PM:
This is the Obama contract for Indiana. So the amount indicates the percentage likelihood of Obama winning the state of Indiana, according to the InTrade market.
So my question is, what happened at 9:30? For about 15 minutes the market seriously believed that McCain would win Indiana, but then the market swung back. So did one county in Indiana release their numbers and it made people think McCain would pull it out? Was there a strange rumor?
Very curious…
Steve Fischer's Random Blog 
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