InTrade

For political junkies, InTrade is fascinating. And it’s predictive value, while imperfect, has proven very good.

Tonight the polls in Michigan closed at 9ET. All the major news networks are calling the Republican primary too close to call.

But the InTrade market on Romney winning the Michigan primary, which had been hovering around 60% all day, shot up above 90% right at 9ET. It was at 98% by 10ET. Major news networks are still calling it too close to call.

So which is it? A lock or too close to call?

We’ll see tomorrow. I’d go with InTrade, but I’m also going to bed…