A beautiful video of the latest SpaceX launch. And I like “flight-proven” as the replacement term for “used”….
Author: fish1964
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Chess, Chess Baby
I’m sure everyone knows about this, it’s been in all the papers. Magnus Carlsen and Fabiano Caruana, the world’s #1 and #2 chess players, will be competing for the world championship over the next two weeks. The last time #1 and #2 faced off like this was in 1990.
Fabiano grew up in Brooklyn, and would be the first American chess champion since Bobby Fischer. Five Thirty Eight has a nice feature story on him.
If you ask the people who know Fabiano Caruana what Fabiano Caruana is like, they will tell you that Fabiano Caruana is, you know, just a normal guy.
He likes movies. He likes music. He likes to eat. He works out. He goes on dates.
Just a normal guy.
Just a normal guy who is ranked second in the world in chess. A normal guy who was pulled out of school after seventh grade to do nothing but play the ancient and intricate game. A normal guy who is a hairbreadth away from prying the No. 1 position loose from probably the best player ever to play the game. A normal guy who, beginning Friday, will sit down at a table in London with this probably-the-best-ever player, Magnus Carlsen of Norway, in a grueling, weeks-long battle for the world championship of chess. A normal guy who could be the first American to win the title since Bobby Fischer in 1972. Real 99.99999999th percentile stuff
Just a normal guy.
I’m obviously rooting for the Brooklyn dude. But two ridiculously smart people squaring off? How cool.
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The Fox Caravan
Alexandra Petri may be the funniest political writer around these days…
Lone guy at Fox News still worried about caravan, embarrassing colleagues
The “Fox & Friends” producer, accustomed to checking the screen every minute to watch the familiar ominous footage as hosts asked creepy, leading rhetorical questions about it, was shocked to see it was no longer there. “What about the diseases and terrorism?” he kept asking as his colleagues tried to avoid making eye contact with one another so they would not burst into laughter. “My whole family is in a bunker! We went to the polls explicitly because of this issue and the president’s effective messaging on it.”
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Ever So Slightly Risky
I follow politics pretty closely, so I was watching the election returns Tuesday night. I pay attention to Five Thirty Eight because they generally have the best data and their election night coverage was good. They had a real time estimate of the odds of each party winning the house and the senate and early in the night their model appeared to be over-reacting to early returns. Nate Silver tweeted:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982719554215936
The model briefly had Republicans with a 60% chance of winning the house.
Today I read this article from the Financial Times. Political betting markets also briefly had the Republicans likely to take the house. I suspect 538’s data had something to do with that.
This caused a brief spike in the US Debt market.
Per the Financial Times:
So for about an hour last night, the people who trade US debt thought that Republicans would control the White House, Senate and House for another two years. This was a surprise, and so it was the only information they were reacting to. Which means we can control for how they feel about Republican spending.
And so now we know. It’s not just inflation. It’s not just China. Markets see Republican fiscal policies as ever so slightly…
risky.
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Vote
Here’s the simple math:
If you’re tempted to not vote because of the vitriol or the imperfect nature of the choices, then you’re supporting a downward cycle, in which the candidate who best suppresses voter turnout of the opponent’s backers wins.
On the other hand, if you always vote for the least-bad option, then a forward cycle will kick in, in which candidates (and their consultants and backers, who are also causing this problem) will realize that always being a little less bad than the other guy is a winning strategy. Which leads to a virtuous cycle in the right direction.
Don’t get tricked. Show up.
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Curses From a Millenial Witch
Via McSweeny’s. Read them all, but some highlights:
May you begrudgingly share your Hulu account with a sibling who watches the same series as you only at a slightly faster pace and totally loses your place. May this cause minor spoilers that frustrate you to no end.
Bane upon your Tinder profile! From now until eternity all your matches will wear fedoras at a jaunty angle and use the word “doggo” sincerely.
May you spend $80 on energy crystals only to realize that the energy is from ill-gotten, unethically sourced crystals with horrific mining conditions.
“Jaunty angle” still makes me laugh…
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Seven Square Miles
Via Alan Taylor and The Atlantic, a fascinating view using Google Earth of seven square miles of various places. You need to see the whole thing, but some highlights:
Cities:
Manhattan, with Central Park in the middle:
Compare to Mexico City:
And Honolulu:
Farmland:
Near Madison Wisconsin:
Near Plymouth Washington:
and Namibia:
Check the whole thing out, that’s just a small sample. There are so many stunning images.
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Underwater Photo Contest Winners
Oh my, via Scuba Diving Magazine, the 2018 underwater photo contest winners. Just go check them all out, they are spectacular.
Grand Prize Winner:
This picture is tricky because it’s actually flipped upside down.
This one was merely a second place winner. Stunning:
Steve Fischer's Random Blog 