Category: Politics

Barry Ritholtz is always a good read. This one especially so.

We are told over and over, again and again, that If we allow the federal government to deficit spend, a parade of horrors awaits us, including:

– Excess Federal spending will crowd out Private Capital, choking innovation and new company formation;

– The costs of US borrowing will skyrocket, making the debt impossible to manage;

– The US Dollar will be devastated, and it will be radically devalued against all other currencies;

– All of this will cause rampant inflation, spiking prices to levels not seen before;

– Deficits will act as a drag on the overall economy;

It has been 50 years of hearing this — and NONE OF IT HAS PROVEN TRUE.

Hard to argue with that.

I have no idea how to make an inflation headline sexy. But my favorite inflation headline scold is going crazy so you will be subjected to his rant. Expect a bunch of crazy headlines about inflation over the next few days/months. They may be politically motivated or just naïve, but they are likely to be wrong.

Inflation numbers generally take the CPI (Consumer Price Index) from this month compared to a year ago. That is generally sensible. But what was going on a year ago? Perhaps the entire economy shutting down due to a pandemic? Might that skew the numbers? Will anyone mention that?

Note the chart below (annotations via Kevin Drum). Click the link above if you want the actual math, but it’s pretty clear that if you compare this year’s May/June/July/August numbers with last year, you’ll get an inflation rate that is out of whack (lies, damn lies, and statistics).

Sorry, no actual girls in this post.

There’s been quite a bit of brouhaha about vaccine passports lately. My second shot was 15 days ago, so I have my NY State Excelsior Pass, digital confirmation that I’ve been vaccinated. Apparently it would be useful to go see the Mets or Yankees, both of whom require vaccination or a recent negative test to attend a game. That appears to be the situation in New York. In Florida the governor has apparently declared that requiring proof of vaccination is prohibited, but the Miami Heat are offering designated vaccine sections. Baseball in Florida appears to just require you to wear a mask. A Miami food festival is requiring either a recent negative test or a vaccine (same as baseball in NY) which they feel still works with the governor’s rule (you don’t need the vaccine if you have a negative test).

Norwegian Cruise Line has announced that all passengers (plus crew) must be vaccinated. Other cruise lines are following suit or offering specific cruises that are vaccine only. A bar in Denver is open only for vaccinated patrons.

These all seem like reasonable business decisions. Some businesses will decide to be stricter than others. Capitalism at work. We’ve been requiring kids to get vaccinations to attend school for ages, what’s the big deal here?

Get your shot…

This was a terrible day for America.

The worst human being ever to enter the presidency, and I include all the slaveholders.

— David Frum (@davidfrum) January 20, 2017

This day has been foreshadowed by every hour of this Presidency.

— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) January 6, 2021

It should have never come to this, but it was always going to come to this. https://t.co/NSUkaVk6ad

— George Conway (@gtconway3d) January 6, 2021

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people.

Martin Luther King, Jr

From @gdinwiddie.

 

An Op-Ed in the NY Times has the following paragraph:

The old assumptions — that truth matters, that lies shame the liar, that in a democracy the press and the public must have a right to interrogate those who seek the top jobs — have all been swept aside by the Tories’ conviction that in an inattentive, dissatisfied, cacophonous world, victory will go to the most compelling entertainer, the most plausible and shameless deceiver, the leader who can drill home a repetitive and seductive incantation. Facts and details will be irrelevant so long as voters feel a politician is on their side.

Replace “Tories” with “Republicans” in the US. It’s the same story, right?