Category: Politics

I follow politics pretty closely, so I was watching the election returns Tuesday night. I pay attention to Five Thirty Eight because they generally have the best data and their election night coverage was good. They had a real time estimate of the odds of each party winning the house and the senate and early in the night their model appeared to be over-reacting to early returns. Nate Silver tweeted:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982719554215936

The model briefly had Republicans with a 60% chance of winning the house.

Today I read this article from the Financial Times. Political betting markets also briefly had the Republicans likely to take the house. I suspect 538’s data had something to do with that.

This caused a brief spike in the US Debt market.

Per the Financial Times:

So for about an hour last night, the people who trade US debt thought that Republicans would control the White House, Senate and House for another two years. This was a surprise, and so it was the only information they were reacting to. Which means we can control for how they feel about Republican spending.

And so now we know. It’s not just inflation. It’s not just China. Markets see Republican fiscal policies as ever so slightly…

risky.

https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1060217406470135808

Seth Godin says it well:

Here’s the simple math:

If you’re tempted to not vote because of the vitriol or the imperfect nature of the choices, then you’re supporting a downward cycle, in which the candidate who best suppresses voter turnout of the opponent’s backers wins.

On the other hand, if you always vote for the least-bad option, then a forward cycle will kick in, in which candidates (and their consultants and backers, who are also causing this problem) will realize that always being a little less bad than the other guy is a winning strategy. Which leads to a virtuous cycle in the right direction.

Don’t get tricked. Show up.

Via Our World in Data, A Map of the World Where the Sizes of Countries Are Determined by Population.

At first I thought Canada was just blocked by the map title, but no, it’s that tiny orange stripe. Russia is also quite small compared to its land size.

I miss the days when I disagreed with Bill Kristol…

Given how crazy the world seems these days, I’ve wondered what The Onion finds to write about. But they seem to be managing fine. Some of the tips:

Avoid unkind generalizations like equating the jailing of ethnic minorities with some malevolent form of fascism.

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Recall that violently rejecting a tyrannical government goes against everything our forefathers believed in.

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Make sure any protests are peaceful, silent, and completely out of sight of anyone who could actually affect government policy.

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Give your political opponents the benefit of the doubt by letting this play out for 20 years and seeing if it gets any better on its own.

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Avoid painting with a broad brush. Not everyone in favor of zero-tolerance immigration wants to see children in cages—it’s more likely that they just don’t care.

This is fascinating. I had no idea that the lawyer who got the judge to force Cohen’s lawyer to reveal that the third client was Sean Hannity wasn’t even a lawyer for either primary party.

I introduced myself and listed off my clients, and the judge invited me to the podium, where I began my argument. I pointed out, as Strom did on Friday, that the names of clients were not privileged and that there is a First Amendment right of access to court hearings whose purpose is to enable the public and press to monitor their institutions. I pointed out that most of the seats in the room were occupied by members of the press, and I wrapped up by quoting Chief Justice Burger in Richmond Newspapers v. Virginia. The judge eventually ordered Mr. Cohen’s attorneys to reveal the client’s name. That’s when we had a truly Perry Mason moment: The attorney said it was Hannity, and there was a collective and audible gasp in the room. I’ve been practicing law for a long time, and I’ve never seen anything like that. Electronic devices are generally prohibited in the court, too, so five or 10 reporters rushed from the room to get that news out as soon as possible. It was like a scene from an old-time movie.